Pakistan heads towards a bloody Revolution?

Fazal ur Rehman Afridi

Unable to recover from the worst catastrophe of its 63 years history, Pakistan is faced with a serious challenge in the days to come. But, political analyst and observers believe, the worst has yet to come. After recovering from the shock and emergency relief efforts, the people will find themselves in a real problematic situation where they will find ruins of what they owned and massive destruction all around. Inefficient government lacking political will and disinterested establishment to rehabilitate the people are playing politics on the dead bodies of the victims by launching dirty vilification campaign against each other in the print and electronic media. This resembles the same situation when Rome was burning, Nero was playing violin.

Some political observers term it a follow-up to a phenomenon just like French Revolution (1789-1799), resulting in evaporation of feudal, aristocratic and religious privileges and embracing of enlightened principals like Liberty, Equality and Fraternity (www.en.wikipedia.org). While French Revolution was for the achievement of the above mentioned objectives, Pakistani masses lack both leadership and goals.

Faced with myriads of problems like terrorism, economic and social problems, masses are really frustrated and have developed psychological problems. Rampant torture and killings have made the people dangerously aggressive and violent, which is resulting in Incidents like Sialkot, when two brothers were brutally tortured and beaten to death by a mob, while police and other spectators were applauding and cheering the murderers. Later the bodies of these teenagers were hanged in front of a police station. This brutal episode shows the barbarity and distrust of the people in the security apparatus and Pakistani Judiciary, resorting to mob-justice time and again (www.observers.france24.com).

Another serious area of concern is the revival of Taliban in the areas where they have been considered weak after successful military operations. The government and military have been weakened considerably due to the destruction of infrastructure and are over-stretched to provide some help to flood victims. Taliban have come out stronger after the floods. This proposition is supported by recent wave of suicide attacks by Taliban-cum-Al-Qaeda-affiliated anti-Shia group, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

1. Immediately after the floods, the first alarm bell was rung when 33 people were killed and 50 injured by a suicide bomber at Karbala Gam-e-Shah, Lahore, the capital city of Punjab Province. The enraged Shia-precisionist vent their anger on police, journalists and even rescue workers. Again, the world saw the phenomenon of mob-justice by public, setting ablaze a police station and destroying properties. (Daily The News, September 02, 2010)

2. Second suicide attack was reported at Quetta, Provincial capital of Baluchistan, resulting in the killing of 65 and injuring of 160 of the Shia student processionists of Imamia Students Organization (ISO). The mob reacted in the same way as in Lahore by resorting to indiscriminate firing and destruction of properties. The Quetta attack was more dangerous in the sense as seven journalists were injured in this incident. (Daily Jasarat, September 04, 2010 ).

3. In a similar attack 2 policemen were killed in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In another suicide attack 2 Ahmadis were killed and 5 others were injured in Mardan when they were performing Friday prayer. (Daily Frontier Post, Peshawar, September 04, 2010)

4. Again, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into a police station in the southern city of Lakki Marwat, killing 19 people, most of them security officials. (Daily Dawn, Mon, 06 Sep, 2010)

5. Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh echoed with firing on a Shia procession near Impress Market. Fortunately, it did not result in death and injury but the phenomenon of Target Killing mainly between two ethnic groups for the control of the city is continuing and hounding the public in Karachi on daily basis- which has brought the economic engine of Pakistan to a stand still.

It is important to note that all these co-ordinated attacks by Taliban and their affiliate groups took place within a short time span of one week, indicate the strength & superiority of Taliban and weakness of the government. But, this is just like scratching the surface. The civil and military establishment is weakened to the extent, that Gilgit Baltistan area has been virtually handed over to PLA of China. 8000-10000 strong Chinese army has the de-facto control of GB, in the guise of helping the flood victims and rehabilitating them. The construction of permanent military barracks by Chinese Army in GB, shows the real future intentions of China. Selig Harrison, an American expert on Asia, in his article published in New York Times, has termed it a dangerous development which will have negative implications for American interests in the region.

When we analyze these dangerous un-controlled developments in the face of the recent historically worst floods and the consequent destruction of infra-structure, it leads us to the conclusion that Pakistan is about to enter an uncharted territory. New horrible developments, one can forecast for the immediate future are partly explained by General Hamid Gul, former ISI chief, in his thought-provoking article published in Daily Jhang on September 02, 2010, “ The situation is really bad. Historical floods have taken away everything, but now the flood of (angry) people is going to sweep away (Pakistan). Nothing will be able to stop this flood of masses…..the situation demands to bury the 63 years old system. I have always been for Soft-Revolution, which seems to be imminent now.”

Retired generals and establishment fed journalists, forwarding the concept of controlled soft revolution are naïve to understand that it cannot be termed revolution at all but Evolution, as there is no concept of soft or hard revolution, it is always bloody. It seems naïve on the part of an experienced General like Hamid Gul to dream of a soft Revolution, despite the fact that the idea of revolution (either soft or hard) presented by him seems to be real and imminent. As, there seems to be lack of leadership and vision, the angry movement can turn into mobocracy, which can result in civil war and unimaginable destruction. A revolution sans leadership lacking vision and goals will plunge the country into chaos and destruction.

So, to cut it short, the establishment fed journalists and political actors who are proposing the idea of Soft-Revolution to destabilize the present democratic set-up, will have to think twice about the consequences of a Revolution. Pakistan Army will not have a country to rule then, as one political scientist put it, “other countries have Armies, Pakistan Army has a country”. Revolution on the French pattern is not possible as Pakistan lack the values, vision and wisdom of the French people, which transformed France for a better tomorrow. If Pakistanis opt for a real revolution, Army, feudals and religious extremists who are presently at privileged position will not have place in the future political dispensation. Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, already in civil-war like situation- Of course, a revolution can result in Balkanization of Pakistan.

FRANCE IN THE GRIP OF POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

Fazal ur Rehman Afridi

Leaving the hot summer holidays behind, President Nikolas Sarkozy is faced with a bit hotter political situation at Elysee, Paris. Prime Minister Fracois Fillion is doing his best to defend the internal security policies elaborated by Sarkozy earlier: still he is facing immense difficulty in persuading majority of the Members of Parliament on this polemic issue.

The forced deportation of a thousand Roma Community members to Romania and Bulgaria by chartered plans after Grenoble episode has strained France relationship with EU and UN Human Rights forums and stained the image of France as righty put by Dominique de Villepin.

France's crackdown on its foreign Roma population came under fire from all sides of the political and social spectrum recently as pressure mounted on the government to abandon its plan to repatriate hundreds of Roma people to their native countries.

European Commission against Racism and Intolerance expressed its deep concern over France's tactics of exclusion of Roma. The Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD), of United Nations has called on France to stop the mass returns of Roma. The interior minister, Brice Hortefeux, however shrugged off the criticism by terming it opposition from a left-leaning elite of Paris which is out of touch with the mood of mainstream society.

Foreign Minster Bernard Kouchner defended the policies earlier, but after deep resentment and strong protests by the European Commission and UN watch dog on Racism, he seems to be helpless. Frustrated of course, he is thinking about resigning as it is becoming difficult for him with every passing day to defend the internal and sometimes external policies carved out by Sarkozy. The fact that most of the French support these so-called security measures of the government as confirmed by peoples opinion poles, make it difficult for world community to pressure it to refrain from such moves.

Moreover, the policy of penalizing parents for the delinquents youth, revocation of the citizenship of foreigners who deliberately attack the police force and persons involved in polygamy, has also caused widespread criticism. The full veil or Burqa issue is on the back-burner for the time being, as ban on complete-veil has been adopted in the National Assembly earlier and waiting to become a law after a vote in Senate.

In the wake of mounting pressure from the main opposition Party PS on the issue of security, the prime Minster has confirmed that there are some problems with the security policies adopted by the government and seems difficult to defend some them. Matine Aubry, the First Secretary of the Socialist Party (PS) is on offensive by introducing her own version of soft approach of prevention, dissuasion and sanction, to reduce crimes in French society. Resistance to the changing of retirement age from 60 to 62 years by PS is another issue which divide the two main parties. Political Analysts term it a preparation for the Presidential elections of 2012 for which Martine Aubry has emerged as a strong candidate against Nikolas Sarkozy. Left-leaning PS believe in empowering the police and Judicial system rather than resorting to repressive measures resulting in alienation of public.

On diplomatic front, the August 25, Foreign policy speech at the 18th Conference of Ambassadors, Sarkozy reaffirmed French commitment to remain in Afghanistan, despite pressure from certain circles on account of deaths of French soldiers and completely strange and difficult conditions in Afghanistan. Lack of experience and communication with region make it difficult for French soldiers to work effectively. Concern was expressed on the double timing of Pakistan on the war on terrorism, which has resulted in big human and material losses for Allied forces in Afghanistan. France with a 3750 strong army, fighting shoulder to shoulder with American and allied forces is committed to fight terrorism in all its forms.

On the issue of Nuclear civilian energy transfers to countries in need, he made it clear that France is not against the transfer of civilian nuclear technology for peaceful purposes under the supervision of IAEA. Despite American concerns regarding civilian nuclear technology transfers, France's soft-attitude on this sensitive issue is largely due to the fact that she is interested in civilian nuclear technology co-operation with a number of countries like UAE, with which it has signed Mega-deals. France expects to sign more deals ranging in billions of Euros. But, countries like China and Pakistan can object to such deals, as both the countries have signed an agreement for two nuclear power plants to be constructed in Pakistan. Americans have objected to this deal, sighting security concerns and lack of transparency.

The French head of the State expressed his hope that a peace deal is possible between Israel and Palestinian Authority within a year. This shows France's commitment and interest for the peaceful resolution of this conflict. He confirmed firmness and sanctions against Iran but expressed France's readiness for dialogue. Sarkozy outlined the French priorities and proposals for changes into international financial instruments and frameworks at the G-20 forum. France is expected to head G-20 in November this year.

The economic crisis which has affected the world and Europe has forced France to take austerity measures in different sectors. Cut in allocations for foreign missions have created anxiety and un-ease in the diplomatic corps of France. Feeling the pinch hard, One Ambassador of France in Senegal has already resigned and others are in apparent un-ease as government has reduced the budgetary appropriations to Embassies abroad. Government funded French cultural Centres are facing eminent closure and scholarships for foreign engineering students have been slashed, which will damage the French political and cultural influence in the African countries considerably in the long run. Non-utilization of such instruments will result in receding French influence in face of the strong cultural offensive of Chines and German foreign missions in this continent.

The foreign policy evolved during Sarkozy's mandate as head of the state is under attack as he laid out his new priorities in an emphatic speech of August 25, lacking substance: a routine annual stunt. Critics have termed it a policy lacking strategic thinking and full of errors. The internal security policy, heading in the wrong direction is under fire both by political analysts and PS, the main opposition party of France.