Pakistan heads towards a bloody Revolution?

Fazal ur Rehman Afridi

Unable to recover from the worst catastrophe of its 63 years history, Pakistan is faced with a serious challenge in the days to come. But, political analyst and observers believe, the worst has yet to come. After recovering from the shock and emergency relief efforts, the people will find themselves in a real problematic situation where they will find ruins of what they owned and massive destruction all around. Inefficient government lacking political will and disinterested establishment to rehabilitate the people are playing politics on the dead bodies of the victims by launching dirty vilification campaign against each other in the print and electronic media. This resembles the same situation when Rome was burning, Nero was playing violin.

Some political observers term it a follow-up to a phenomenon just like French Revolution (1789-1799), resulting in evaporation of feudal, aristocratic and religious privileges and embracing of enlightened principals like Liberty, Equality and Fraternity (www.en.wikipedia.org). While French Revolution was for the achievement of the above mentioned objectives, Pakistani masses lack both leadership and goals.

Faced with myriads of problems like terrorism, economic and social problems, masses are really frustrated and have developed psychological problems. Rampant torture and killings have made the people dangerously aggressive and violent, which is resulting in Incidents like Sialkot, when two brothers were brutally tortured and beaten to death by a mob, while police and other spectators were applauding and cheering the murderers. Later the bodies of these teenagers were hanged in front of a police station. This brutal episode shows the barbarity and distrust of the people in the security apparatus and Pakistani Judiciary, resorting to mob-justice time and again (www.observers.france24.com).

Another serious area of concern is the revival of Taliban in the areas where they have been considered weak after successful military operations. The government and military have been weakened considerably due to the destruction of infrastructure and are over-stretched to provide some help to flood victims. Taliban have come out stronger after the floods. This proposition is supported by recent wave of suicide attacks by Taliban-cum-Al-Qaeda-affiliated anti-Shia group, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

1. Immediately after the floods, the first alarm bell was rung when 33 people were killed and 50 injured by a suicide bomber at Karbala Gam-e-Shah, Lahore, the capital city of Punjab Province. The enraged Shia-precisionist vent their anger on police, journalists and even rescue workers. Again, the world saw the phenomenon of mob-justice by public, setting ablaze a police station and destroying properties. (Daily The News, September 02, 2010)

2. Second suicide attack was reported at Quetta, Provincial capital of Baluchistan, resulting in the killing of 65 and injuring of 160 of the Shia student processionists of Imamia Students Organization (ISO). The mob reacted in the same way as in Lahore by resorting to indiscriminate firing and destruction of properties. The Quetta attack was more dangerous in the sense as seven journalists were injured in this incident. (Daily Jasarat, September 04, 2010 ).

3. In a similar attack 2 policemen were killed in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In another suicide attack 2 Ahmadis were killed and 5 others were injured in Mardan when they were performing Friday prayer. (Daily Frontier Post, Peshawar, September 04, 2010)

4. Again, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into a police station in the southern city of Lakki Marwat, killing 19 people, most of them security officials. (Daily Dawn, Mon, 06 Sep, 2010)

5. Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh echoed with firing on a Shia procession near Impress Market. Fortunately, it did not result in death and injury but the phenomenon of Target Killing mainly between two ethnic groups for the control of the city is continuing and hounding the public in Karachi on daily basis- which has brought the economic engine of Pakistan to a stand still.

It is important to note that all these co-ordinated attacks by Taliban and their affiliate groups took place within a short time span of one week, indicate the strength & superiority of Taliban and weakness of the government. But, this is just like scratching the surface. The civil and military establishment is weakened to the extent, that Gilgit Baltistan area has been virtually handed over to PLA of China. 8000-10000 strong Chinese army has the de-facto control of GB, in the guise of helping the flood victims and rehabilitating them. The construction of permanent military barracks by Chinese Army in GB, shows the real future intentions of China. Selig Harrison, an American expert on Asia, in his article published in New York Times, has termed it a dangerous development which will have negative implications for American interests in the region.

When we analyze these dangerous un-controlled developments in the face of the recent historically worst floods and the consequent destruction of infra-structure, it leads us to the conclusion that Pakistan is about to enter an uncharted territory. New horrible developments, one can forecast for the immediate future are partly explained by General Hamid Gul, former ISI chief, in his thought-provoking article published in Daily Jhang on September 02, 2010, “ The situation is really bad. Historical floods have taken away everything, but now the flood of (angry) people is going to sweep away (Pakistan). Nothing will be able to stop this flood of masses…..the situation demands to bury the 63 years old system. I have always been for Soft-Revolution, which seems to be imminent now.”

Retired generals and establishment fed journalists, forwarding the concept of controlled soft revolution are naïve to understand that it cannot be termed revolution at all but Evolution, as there is no concept of soft or hard revolution, it is always bloody. It seems naïve on the part of an experienced General like Hamid Gul to dream of a soft Revolution, despite the fact that the idea of revolution (either soft or hard) presented by him seems to be real and imminent. As, there seems to be lack of leadership and vision, the angry movement can turn into mobocracy, which can result in civil war and unimaginable destruction. A revolution sans leadership lacking vision and goals will plunge the country into chaos and destruction.

So, to cut it short, the establishment fed journalists and political actors who are proposing the idea of Soft-Revolution to destabilize the present democratic set-up, will have to think twice about the consequences of a Revolution. Pakistan Army will not have a country to rule then, as one political scientist put it, “other countries have Armies, Pakistan Army has a country”. Revolution on the French pattern is not possible as Pakistan lack the values, vision and wisdom of the French people, which transformed France for a better tomorrow. If Pakistanis opt for a real revolution, Army, feudals and religious extremists who are presently at privileged position will not have place in the future political dispensation. Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, already in civil-war like situation- Of course, a revolution can result in Balkanization of Pakistan.

The Human Rights Crisis in Northwest Pakistan

Fazal ur Rehman Afridi

The recently unveiled report titled “As If Hell Fell On Me”, by Amnesty International (AI), depict a horrifically dismal picture of the Human rights situation in Northwest of Pakistan, with particular emphasis on atrocities committed by the security forces of Pakistan and Taliban. The report is a red-card by Amnesty handed over to Pakistan- playing foul in the field of Human Rights. Focusing mainly on the deteriorating Human Rights situation in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Amnesty was having no choice but to declare FATA to be a Human Rights Free Zone. Keeping in view the stature of Amnesty as defender of the Human Rights on International level, this report can work as an eye opener for the Western World, which is hesitant to declare Northwest of Pakistan a war zone mainly due to political hypocrisy and vested interest. The report is not complete and comprehensive partly due to the fact that the representatives of Amnesty International were not allowed to enter FATA to directly meet, talk, investigate and interrogate the people and the security forces: to assess the situation on the ground objectively by itself.

The current sporadic and continuous low intensity fighting in FATA and Northwest of Pakistan represent a war theater. A war zone far more dangerous and bloodier than Afghanistan and Iraq resulting in dozens of casualties on daily basis. The astronomical human and material cost of this ongoing strife has pushed Pakistan hard enough to overtake Afghanistan and Iraq. Mass graves discovered at different locations in Swat as confirmed by HRCP, AI and HRW: reminds of the Serb genocide of 1995 in the city of Srebrenica in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Many more undiscovered Mass-graves are waiting to be unearthed, if and when International Human Rights Organizations will be allowed to enter FATA.

The magnitude and scale of torture, killing and forced disappearances by Military Establishment of Pakistan dwarfs the Chilean Dictator, General Augusto Pinochet. The Supreme Court of Pakistan is powerless, as its orders to produce missing persons before the court for trial are thrown into dustbin by Military Establishment.

The situation is pathetically dismal in areas of Freedom of expression and liberty of the Press. Pakistan holds the unenviable top position in the world with the highest number of journalists killed so far this year. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and FATA are lawless with complete break-down of Law & order. Government security agencies and Taliban show scant respect for the rule of law and supremacy of the constitution.

A brief description of Human Rights violations by Taliban and the governemt of Pakistan (Military) are enumerated by Amnesty International as under:

TALIBAN ATROCITIES:

1. Many of the Taleban’s acts constitute crimes under international law. They are also crimes under Pakistan’s law but in the absence of suitable judicial structures and the Pakistan government’s inability or lack of will to protect the local population from such crimes, these crimes have been committed with impunity”. The Pakistan-based Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, have both estimated more than 11,000 Casualties in 2009 only in North-West of Pakistan.

2. In 2008 and 2009, Amnesty International documented 114 cases of attacks by the Taleban against locally prominent persons, including government officials, tribal leaders allied with the government, Journalists, aid workers and human rights activists. These attacks resulted in at least 256 deaths of civilians belonging to the aforementioned groups.

3. Taliban have imposed a strict social codes on civilians, forcing men to wear long Beards, wear caps, perform prayers and women to wear full veils or burqas. These and other actions are abuses of a whole range of human rights of local residents, including to life, to liberty and security of the person, to non-discrimination, freedom of expression, religion, association and movement, and the prohibition of torture and ill-treatment.

4. The Taleban have systematically abused the right to life, and to freedom from arbitrary detention, torture, gender, religious, and ethnic discrimination, and the right to free expression—among other internationally recognized human rights”, the report says.

HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS COMMITTED BY PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT (MILITARY):

1. Pakistan has deployed tanks, artillery, jet fighters and bombers, helicopter gunships, and thousands of regular military troops to FATA for the first time in the history of Pakistan. The research conduct by Amnesty International shows that the Pakistani military has not taken sufficient care to minimize the risk to civilians, often resorting to indiscriminate or disproportionate force in its operations. Pakistani government forces have detained hundreds, if not thousands, of FATA residents on suspicion of cooperating with the Pakistani Taleban.

2. Cedible media reports suggest that some 2,500 people were in detention in the first half of 2010…the numbers subjected to enforced disappearances could be much higher. These detainees are not held under any clear legal framework under Pakistan’s law, the report confirms. Hundreds of thousands of FATA’s nearly four million residents have fled the increasing brutality of the Pakistani Taleban and of the government’s military response.

3. Amnesty International has documented multiple instances of the military blocking members of the Mehsud tribe from using major roads to flee the conflict zone during its military operation of Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan.

These violations presented by Amnesty International is just like scratching the surface. Now, I would like to see as to which International mechanism exists, through which the Taliban and Military commanders who committed and ordered these abuses and brutalities to be brought to justice at an appropriate time. The following International Criminal, Human Rights and Humanitarians laws and other UN conventions have been violated:

Under international criminal law (ICL), individuals may be held criminally responsible for certain violations of international human rights law (IHRL), such as torture and enforced disappearance, for crimes against humanity and genocide, and for serious violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), such as war crimes. International human rights law applies both in peacetime and during armed conflict and is legally binding on states and has implications for non-state actors.

International humanitarian law (IHL) also known as the law of armed conflict, is binding on all parties to an armed conflict (regardless of whether the conflict is international or non-international), including non-state armed groups.

The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), though not itself a binding treaty, articulates some of the most basic rights that all UN member states pledge to promote and protect pursuant to the Charter of the United Nations. A number of the UDHR provisions, including the prohibition on discrimination and the right to equality before the law, prohibition on torture and other ill-treatment, and the right to fair trial by an independent and impartial tribunal are violated by the government of Pakistan.

Under the Convention for the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) , Pakistan is required to ensure that women enjoy equal rights and access as are provided to men in a range of fields such as holding public office, education, employment, health care, other areas of economic and social life CEDAW requires Pakistan to accord to women equality with men before the law, including a legal capacity in civil matters identical to that of men and the same opportunities to exercise that capacity, and equal treatment in all stages of procedure in courts and tribunals. The draconian black law of Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) imposed on FATA residents clearly violets CEDAW and UDHR as most of its articles particularly Clauses 21, 22, 40 FCR are barbaric medieval-aged interpretation of laws. Under the clause of collective responsibility, tribesmen are arrested and sentenced some times for 14 years without trial in the courts of Pakistan for the crimes they have not committed. A women can be imprisoned without any trial before any court of law, without a right to appeal: if her husband or father-in-law accuse her of extra-marital relationship. Hundreds of children are languishing in prisons for the crimes they have not committed under 40 FCR in contravention to the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

The Constitution of Pakistan of 1973 explicitly excludes FATA from the legal, judicial and parliamentary system of Pakistan, including barring residents from full representation in parliament and bringing appeals to a higher courts of Pakistan. One does not understand as to how a state can maintain its membership of UN when its laws and Constitution clearly violate all International Human Rights instruments, treaties, laws and conventions.

“Finally, it is worth recalling that members of the Pakistan government or army and the insurgency movements may be subject to criminal prosecutions under international criminal law, in relation to war crimes, crimes against humanity, or other crimes under international law” Amnesty International confirms.

This statement of Amnesty International which clearly put the responsibility on the government of Pakistan or Army and the Taliban should be taken seriously by US, EU and relevant institutions like International Court of Justice (ICJ) to take measures to bring the culprits to justice, otherwise the world will witness a genocide in comparable in the history of Mankind.

I fully appreciate the efforts of Amnesty International for documenting this report with razor-beam focus on violations of IHRL, IHL, UDHR, CEDAW, CRC and the relevant Geneva conventions in Northwest of Pakistan, particularly FATA.

But, inspite of dozens of reports and mountains of information piled up by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and Human Rights Commission of Pakistan: analysis by think-tanks like Rand and Council for Foreign Relations: the protests, condemnations and reports filed by Press freedom organization like Reporters without Borders(RSF), International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) and World Association for Newspapers (WAN): Annual Human Rights reports both by US and European governments, expressing concern over Human Rights abuses both by the State of Pakistan and Taliban in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: no Inquiry under an International Inquiry Commission (my proposal) has been conducted to verify and ascertain the factual situation on the ground which is far more dangerous than reported. A full-fledge war is going on in the Northern Part of Pakistan but still the Western countries are reluctant to declare it a war zone. Northwest of Pakistan needs to be declared a Safe Area under International protection, in order to protect the Pashtun race from ongoing Genocide by Punjabi Military Establishment.

The human rights abuses and violation of IHRL and IHL documented in this report is just a tip of an iceberg. Despite the fact that this effort of Amnesty International is a bold step in the right direction but the international community cannot relieve itself of its main responsibility to make the government of Pakistan accountable for the human right abuses that are taking place under the nose of the military establishment or to put it more precisely, with the active connivance or orders of the higher Command of the Military.

The merciless killing of innocent Pashtun Nation by the Pakistani Military will continue until the International Community act with resolute commitment taking tough measures to bring the higher command of Military to justice by invoking the relevant articles of the IHRL, IHL and Geneva Convention of 1949.

We cannot wait to see the situation convert into just like the tragedy of the Genocide of Srebrenica, Bosnia & Herzegovina or worst in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. Unconfirmed reports suggests that more civilians have been killed in violation of International Humanitarian law than one can imagine. It needs to stopped immediately, otherwise the resultant balkanization of Pakistan will be more tormenting and ferocious than one can imagine leaving the un-healing scars of war and destruction dividing Pashtuns and Punjabi communities of Pakistan on blood lines. Again, I would also like to remind the International Court of Justice to take notice of the War Crimes committed by the government of Pakistan and Taliban to bring the culprits to justice.